Scientists have predicted the date they think the UK will be free of coronavirus.
The Singapore University of Technology and Design has created a mathematical model which predicts there will be no more cases of Covid-19 in the UK by September 30.
This puts the UK ahead of the US, which will not be free of coronavirus until November 11. Singapore is expected to stamp out the virus first by July 19, with Italy following shortly after on August 12.
The model – based on a ‘predictive-monitoring’ technique – inputs cases and deaths worldwide and visualises the data in a bar chart. A bell-shaped curve over the top displays the projected trajectory of the disease.
The team have cautioned people from being over-optimistic about the estimates, saying that predictions are “uncertain by nature”.
This is due to a number of factors, including the strengthening of restrictions in some places and the relaxing of measures in others, people not adhering to the measures or protests against lockdown.
They added: “Over-optimism based on some predicted end dates is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.”
It comes after experts in the UK predict we will see a sharp reduction in deaths in June, with sporadic rise and falls over the next four to six weeks.
Professor Carl Heneghan from the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at Oxford University said: “I think by the end of June we’ll be looking at the data and finding it difficult to find people with this illness, if the current trends continue in the deaths.”
“But we will continue to have these sporadic up and downs for about four to six weeks.”
He added: “People shouldn’t panic or get out of context if suddenly, say, we’ve had no deaths for four days, and now we’ve had eight or ten, because we’ll see that as you go down lower numbers, there will be a bit more variation in the actual data.”
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